SPACE & BUSINESS — Elon Musk has challenged Goldman Sachs' forecast for the future size of the global space economy, saying the investment bank's projection is too conservative.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the global space economy could reach $1.8 trillion by 2035 as falling launch costs, reusable rockets, satellite networks and private investment transform the industry. Musk responded to the forecast with a short prediction: “It will be much bigger.”
Goldman Sachs Sees a $1.8 Trillion Space Economy
Goldman Sachs' new report, The Second Space Age, argues that space is moving from a sector dominated mainly by governments toward a much broader commercial industry.
The report estimates that the global space economy could reach approximately $1.8 trillion by 2035.
Lower launch costs, reusable rockets, smaller satellites and growing private investment are among the factors expected to drive that expansion.
Musk Thinks the Forecast Is Too Small
Musk's response was brief but significant.
After the Goldman Sachs forecast was highlighted online, the SpaceX founder replied that the space economy “will be much bigger.”
Although Musk did not provide a specific alternative valuation, his response reflects his long-standing belief that commercial activity in space could eventually become far larger than today's satellite and launch businesses.
Why the Space Economy Is Expanding
The economics of reaching orbit have changed dramatically.
Reusable rockets have reduced the cost of launching satellites and other payloads, making it easier for private companies to develop businesses around space infrastructure.
At the same time, satellite technology has become smaller, cheaper and more capable.
These developments are creating opportunities in communications, navigation, Earth observation, defence, data services and other industries.
SpaceX Is Already Building Several Pieces of the Market
Musk's own SpaceX sits at the centre of many of these developments.
The company operates Starlink, a large satellite communications network, while continuing to develop reusable launch vehicles designed to dramatically increase the amount of material that can be delivered to orbit.
That gives Musk a direct commercial interest in the expansion Goldman Sachs is describing.
Starlink Shows What Is Already Possible
Satellite internet has become one of the clearest examples of how space infrastructure can become a large commercial business.
Starlink has expanded beyond its original focus on providing internet access to remote locations and now serves customers across numerous countries and markets.
The growth of satellite networks demonstrates that space businesses do not necessarily need to depend on government contracts alone.
The Next Opportunity Could Be Orbital Computing
Musk has also promoted a much more ambitious idea: placing artificial-intelligence computing infrastructure in space.
The concept is based on using solar energy and the cold environment of space to operate large computing systems outside Earth.
If such infrastructure becomes technically and economically viable, it could create an entirely new category within the space economy.
Reusable Rockets Are the Key
The biggest limitation for many space businesses has historically been launch cost.
If rockets can be reused rapidly and reliably, the cost of putting satellites, equipment and other payloads into orbit could fall substantially.
That would make previously uneconomical businesses more attractive.
It could also transform space from an occasional destination into a more routinely accessible industrial environment.
Starship Could Change the Scale
SpaceX's Starship programme is central to Musk's long-term vision.
The system is being developed around the goal of full and rapid reusability, potentially allowing much larger payloads to be launched at a far greater frequency than traditional rockets.
If SpaceX achieves that objective, the economics of space transportation could change dramatically.
However, Starship still faces major technical and operational challenges, meaning its ultimate economic impact remains uncertain.
The Space Economy Is More Than Rockets
Goldman's $1.8 trillion forecast covers much more than launch companies.
The broader space economy includes satellite communications, navigation, Earth observation, defence, manufacturing, data services and other infrastructure.
Future industries could also include lunar logistics, space-based manufacturing and commercial activities beyond low Earth orbit.
Private Investment Is Accelerating
Private capital is becoming increasingly important to the industry.
Goldman Sachs said more than $55 billion flowed into the space ecosystem during 2025, followed by another strong period of investment in 2026.
That investment is allowing companies to develop technologies that previously would have required governments or major aerospace contractors to finance.
But Musk's Vision Is Far More Ambitious
Musk's long-term vision extends beyond the commercial space industry described in most financial forecasts.
He has repeatedly discussed permanent human settlements on Mars, large-scale lunar activity and an economy that eventually operates across multiple worlds.
Such developments could make today's space economy appear tiny by comparison.
The Biggest Obstacles Remain on Earth
The space economy's potential should not be confused with guaranteed growth.
Launch systems must become more reliable, satellite networks require enormous amounts of capital and space infrastructure faces difficult regulatory and technical constraints.
Orbital debris, spectrum management, cybersecurity and international competition could also limit expansion.
Some of Musk's most ambitious ideas remain theoretical rather than commercially proven.
Why the Forecast Matters
Whether the space economy reaches $1.8 trillion or something significantly larger, the direction of the industry is becoming increasingly clear.
Space is gradually becoming part of the wider commercial economy rather than remaining an isolated government and scientific activity.
The companies that control launch infrastructure, satellite networks, data and future orbital infrastructure could therefore become extremely important in the global economy.
Our Perspective
Musk's prediction should be treated as a vision rather than a proven economic forecast.
Goldman's $1.8 trillion estimate is already extremely ambitious, while Musk's claim that the market will be “much bigger” depends on technologies that have not yet reached full commercial maturity.
The important question is not whether Musk's number is bigger.
It is whether launch costs can fall far enough to unlock entirely new markets.
If reusable rockets, satellite networks and orbital computing achieve the scale their supporters expect, the space economy could eventually become much larger than today's forecasts. But that future still has to be built, tested and paid for.
Conclusion
Elon Musk has challenged Goldman Sachs' prediction that the global space economy could reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, saying he believes the market will become much larger.
Goldman expects falling launch costs, reusable rockets, satellite technology and private investment to drive rapid growth across the industry.
Musk's own SpaceX is already positioned at the centre of several of those trends through Starlink and its reusable rocket programmes, while his longer-term vision includes orbital computing, lunar infrastructure and eventually a multi-planetary economy.
The $1.8 trillion forecast may already sound enormous, but the real significance of Musk's response is the possibility that today's space industry could eventually become the foundation for entirely new industries that have barely begun to exist.
Daily Touch Insights Editorial Team
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