Meloni Set to Break Italy's Political Stability Record — But Can It Last?

SUMMARY

Giorgia Meloni is approaching a historic milestone as her government becomes Italy's longest-serving since the Second World War. The achievement is significant in a country known for frequent government changes, but the political stability may prove temporary. The next national election, internal coalition tensions, economic challenges and the emergence of new forces on the right could test whether Meloni's period in power represents a lasting political transformation or simply an unusually long period of stability.

MELONI IS ABOUT TO BREAK ITALY'S POLITICAL RECORD — Italy has long been associated with political instability, but Giorgia Meloni is changing that reputation.

Meloni's government has survived longer than almost every government in Italy's post-war history and is approaching the point where it will become the country's longest-serving government since the Second World War.

The milestone is particularly remarkable because Italy has experienced dozens of governments since the establishment of the republic in 1946.

Meloni became prime minister in October 2022 after her Brothers of Italy party emerged as the strongest force in the country's parliamentary election.

Her coalition has remained together despite disagreements over economic policy, defence spending, immigration and other major issues.

But longevity alone does not guarantee that the political stability will continue.

The approaching 2027 election could completely change the balance of power.

Italy's Long History of Government Changes

Italy has one of Europe's most complicated records of government turnover.

Coalitions have frequently collapsed because of disagreements between parties, leadership disputes and changing parliamentary alliances.

Prime ministers have often struggled to maintain support for long periods.

That history makes Meloni's performance unusual.

Her government has managed to remain in office through a period of major economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

It has also maintained a relatively consistent foreign-policy direction, particularly on Italy's relationship with NATO, the United States and European Union.

Meloni's Approach Has Been More Pragmatic Than Expected

Meloni entered government as the leader of a strongly conservative and nationalist political movement.

Some observers expected her government to create major tensions with European institutions and international partners.

Instead, Meloni has generally pursued a pragmatic foreign-policy approach.

Italy has remained firmly inside the Western alliance system, while her government has supported Ukraine and maintained close relations with European partners.

That approach has helped reduce some of the fears that surrounded her arrival in power.

Economic Stability Has Helped Her Government

Meloni has also benefited from an improvement in perceptions of Italy's economic management.

Her government has attempted to maintain fiscal discipline while supporting households and businesses facing higher costs.

Italy continues to face a heavy debt burden, but financial markets have generally viewed the government's stability positively.

Unemployment has also fallen significantly compared with previous years.

However, Italy's fundamental economic problems have not disappeared.

The country continues to struggle with weak productivity, slow economic growth, demographic decline and high public debt.

Those problems cannot be solved simply by keeping one government in power.

Political Stability Does Not Mean Every Reform Has Succeeded

One of the biggest weaknesses of Meloni's government is the gap between political survival and structural reform.

Some of the government's most ambitious proposals have encountered significant resistance.

Judicial reform has faced political and institutional obstacles.

Plans for a directly elected prime minister have also encountered difficulties.

Regional autonomy reforms have generated controversy and legal challenges.

At the same time, the government has moved more successfully on security and immigration policies.

This has created a mixed record.

Meloni has demonstrated that she can keep her coalition together, but maintaining political control is not the same thing as transforming Italy's institutions.

The 2027 Election Could Change Everything

The biggest test of Meloni's political strength will come at the next national election.

Her government may be historically long-lived, but voters will determine whether the political model continues.

The opposition remains divided among several parties, while the right itself is not completely unified.

That could create a complicated electoral environment.

A fragmented parliament could make coalition negotiations difficult and potentially return Italy to the instability that Meloni's government has so far avoided.

A New Force on the Right

One of the developments attracting attention is the rise of Roberto Vannacci.

The former army general has built support among voters attracted to a harder-right political message.

Even a relatively small party can become important in a parliamentary system where coalition arithmetic determines who can form a government.

Vannacci's political rise therefore creates both an opportunity and a potential problem for Meloni.

He could strengthen the broader right by attracting voters who might otherwise support rival parties.

But he could also make the conservative political camp more difficult to manage.

Meloni's Coalition Has Internal Differences

Meloni's government is made up of several political parties.

Those parties share many ideological positions, but they do not agree on everything.

Disagreements have emerged over taxation, public spending, European policies and defence.

Matteo Salvini's League has sometimes taken positions that differ from Meloni's approach.

These differences may become more important as the election approaches.

Political parties that cooperate successfully while governing may become much more competitive when they are trying to win votes from the same electorate.

Defence Spending Is Becoming More Difficult

Europe's changing security environment is creating another challenge.

European governments are under increasing pressure to spend more on defence.

Italy is no exception.

But increasing military spending requires difficult choices because the government must also deal with debt, pensions, healthcare and other domestic priorities.

Meloni therefore faces a balancing act between strengthening Italy's military capabilities and protecting public finances.

Immigration Remains a Major Political Issue

Immigration has been one of the defining issues of Meloni's political career.

Her government has introduced stricter measures aimed at reducing irregular migration and increasing control over Italy's borders.

Some initiatives have received support from voters who want tougher immigration policies.

But others have faced legal, diplomatic and practical difficulties.

The experience demonstrates how complicated it can be to turn political promises into effective government policy.

Young Voters Could Become a Weak Point

Another challenge for Meloni is her relationship with younger voters.

Younger Italians have often shown weaker support for the government's political direction than older voters.

This matters because political movements need to maintain support across generations if they want to dominate politics for a long period.

Italy's demographic situation makes this even more important.

The country has one of Europe's oldest populations and faces a declining birth rate.

Economic opportunities for younger people therefore represent both an economic and political issue.

Italy's Demographic Problem Is Bigger Than Politics

Italy's ageing population creates pressure on pensions, healthcare and public finances.

A shrinking working-age population can also make it harder to maintain economic growth.

These challenges will continue regardless of which political party wins the next election.

For Meloni, solving them would require reforms that may be politically difficult but economically necessary.

The European Dimension

Meloni's political future is also connected to Europe's changing relationship with the United States.

European countries are increasingly discussing strategic autonomy and greater responsibility for their own defence.

Italy's position is particularly important because it is one of Europe's largest economies and a major NATO member.

Meloni has attempted to maintain close relations with Washington while also strengthening Italy's influence inside the European Union.

That balancing act could become increasingly difficult if tensions between the United States and Europe increase.

Why the Stability Record Matters

Despite all these challenges, Meloni's longevity is important.

A stable government can provide businesses with greater predictability.

It can also negotiate international agreements more effectively and implement policies over longer periods.

For a country accustomed to frequent government changes, simply maintaining political continuity is a significant achievement.

But the real question is what Italy gets from that stability.

Longevity Is Not the Same as Success

This distinction is essential.

A government can remain in office for years without solving the structural problems of the country it governs.

Italy still needs stronger productivity, higher investment, improved infrastructure, better opportunities for young people and sustainable public finances.

If those problems remain unresolved, Meloni's record could eventually become more symbolic than transformative.

The Opposition Has an Opportunity

The opposition parties understand that Meloni's greatest strength is the perception of stability.

To defeat her, they need to present voters with a credible alternative rather than simply attacking the government.

That is easier said than done.

Italy's opposition remains divided across different political movements, making it difficult to build a unified alternative.

If that fragmentation continues, Meloni could benefit from the weakness of her opponents even if her own popularity declines.

The Electoral System Could Become Crucial

Italy's electoral rules will play an important role in determining what happens after the next election.

Changes designed to make it easier for governments to secure stable parliamentary majorities could reduce the likelihood of another rapid government collapse.

But electoral reform can also become politically controversial when voters believe the rules are being designed to benefit the party currently in power.

That makes the debate over Italy's electoral system particularly sensitive.

What Meloni Must Do Next

Meloni's next challenge is to convert political longevity into lasting results.

That means tackling problems that have affected Italy for decades rather than focusing only on short-term political victories.

The government will need to address:

• Public debt
• Economic growth
• Low productivity
• Demographic decline
• Youth employment
• Healthcare pressures
• Infrastructure investment
• Defence spending
• Immigration management
• Relations with the European Union

None of these problems has an easy solution.

But solving them would determine whether Meloni's government becomes historically important for reasons beyond its length.

Italy's Political Future Remains Uncertain

The irony is that Meloni's record-breaking government could demonstrate both the possibility and the limits of political stability in Italy.

Her government has shown that Italy can maintain a coalition for an unusually long period.

But the next election could still produce a fragmented political system.

The emergence of new political forces, disagreements within the right and weakness among opposition parties could all reshape the country's political landscape.

Italy's political system has surprised observers before.

It could do so again.

Conclusion

Giorgia Meloni's government is approaching a historic milestone that few Italian prime ministers have achieved.

Her ability to maintain a coalition for such a long period represents a major departure from Italy's traditional pattern of short-lived governments.

But the record should not be confused with permanent political dominance.

The real test will come when Italians return to the ballot box.

If Meloni's coalition wins again, her government could mark the beginning of a new era of political stability.

If the opposition manages to unite or new forces reshape the right, the current period could instead become a historical exception.

For now, Meloni has achieved something remarkable.

She has demonstrated that an Italian government can survive far longer than the country's political history might suggest.

Whether that stability becomes a lasting transformation or merely a temporary pause in Italy's cycle of political change will be decided by what happens next.