SUMMARY
China and India are competing for influence inside an increasingly important BRICS grouping as leaders gather in New Delhi for the 2026 summit. Both countries want a larger voice in shaping the global order, but they have very different strategic interests. India is trying to strengthen its role as an independent power while maintaining relationships with the United States and other Western countries. China wants BRICS to become a stronger platform for emerging economies and a counterweight to Western dominance. Their rivalry could shape how far the expanded bloc can move from a diplomatic forum into a meaningful force in global affairs.
China and India are emerging as the two most important powers competing for influence within the expanded bloc.
The two countries are not formal enemies. They trade heavily with each other, cooperate through international organizations and share an interest in giving developing countries a greater voice in global affairs.
But they are also strategic competitors.
That tension will be difficult to ignore as Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to New Delhi for the 2026 BRICS summit and prepares to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The two governments are already arranging a bilateral meeting, with Beijing saying it wants to approach the relationship from a strategic and long-term perspective while managing their differences.
BRICS Has Become Too Important to Ignore
BRICS has changed dramatically since it began as a small grouping of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
South Africa later joined, followed by Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia.
The expanded organization now represents around half of the world's population and a substantial share of global economic output.
That expansion has made BRICS more influential, but it has also made the organization harder to manage.
Its members have different political systems, economic priorities and relationships with the United States and other Western powers.
That means the country capable of shaping the group's agenda can gain significant diplomatic influence.
China Has the Economic Weight
China enters the BRICS competition with an enormous advantage: economic scale.
It is by far the largest economy in the group and has extensive trade relationships across Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
Chinese companies are major players in infrastructure, manufacturing, telecommunications, electric vehicles, renewable energy and other strategic industries.
Beijing has also spent years developing economic relationships across the Global South.
For China, BRICS provides another platform through which it can promote greater cooperation among developing economies and challenge aspects of a global system that it believes gives Western powers too much influence.
India Wants Its Own Space
India does not want BRICS to become simply a vehicle for Chinese geopolitical ambitions.
New Delhi wants the organization to strengthen the voice of developing countries while preserving India's strategic independence.
That distinction matters.
India maintains a growing relationship with the United States, cooperates with Japan and Australia through the Quad and has expanded security and economic ties with European countries.
At the same time, it remains closely connected to Russia and wants to maintain working relations with China.
India therefore has little interest in turning BRICS into a straightforward anti-Western alliance.
Its preferred position is closer to that of an independent power capable of working with competing sides.
The India-China Rivalry Goes Beyond BRICS
The competition between Beijing and New Delhi did not begin with BRICS.
The two countries have long competed over influence in Asia, trade, technology, infrastructure and regional security.
Their relationship deteriorated sharply after the deadly border clash in the Galwan Valley in 2020.
Since then, both governments have taken steps to reduce tensions, including efforts to restore border patrol arrangements and improve diplomatic communication.
Economic ties have also remained substantial despite political mistrust.
Now, Xi's visit to India represents an important opportunity for both governments to stabilize the relationship.
Why Xi's India Visit Matters
Xi's trip is particularly significant because it will be his first visit to India in seven years.
The timing is important.
China wants to maintain strong relations with a country that is becoming increasingly important in global politics and manufacturing.
India, meanwhile, wants to demonstrate that it can engage directly with China without surrendering its strategic independence.
The Modi-Xi meeting could therefore become one of the most closely watched events of the BRICS summit.
Even a limited improvement in relations could make cooperation inside BRICS easier.
But the Two Countries Still Do Not Trust Each Other
A diplomatic thaw does not mean the strategic rivalry has disappeared.
India remains concerned about China's military presence and infrastructure near disputed areas along their Himalayan border.
China, meanwhile, has reasons to be cautious about India's growing relationship with Washington and its increasing role in the Indo-Pacific.
Both countries are also competing for influence across neighboring countries in South Asia and beyond.
That creates a fundamental contradiction inside BRICS.
China and India want the organization to become stronger, but neither wants the other to dominate it.
India Has an Important Advantage: It Is the Host
India's position in 2026 is particularly powerful because it holds the BRICS chairmanship and is hosting the summit in New Delhi.
That gives Modi's government considerable influence over the agenda and diplomatic priorities of the meeting.
India is emphasizing issues such as economic development, technology, innovation, sustainability and cooperation among developing countries.
The country is also pushing initiatives involving startups, supply chains and digital cooperation.
That allows India to shape BRICS around economic development rather than allowing the organization to be defined only by geopolitical confrontation.
China Wants BRICS to Challenge Western Dominance
China's vision is somewhat different.
Beijing supports greater use of local currencies, alternative payment mechanisms and institutions that can reduce dependence on Western-controlled financial systems.
The idea is not necessarily to replace the U.S. dollar immediately.
Instead, China and some other BRICS members want more options in international trade and finance.
That could reduce the vulnerability of emerging economies to Western sanctions and financial restrictions.
For China, this is one of the areas where BRICS could become more than a diplomatic discussion club.
India Is More Cautious About De-Dollarization
India also supports greater use of local currencies in international trade, but New Delhi has been more cautious about turning BRICS into an explicitly anti-dollar project.
India's economic relationship with the United States remains extremely important.
It also wants access to Western technology, investment and markets.
That creates a different calculation from China's.
India wants greater financial independence, but it does not want to destroy relationships with the existing global financial system.
The Global South Is the Bigger Prize
The real competition may not be about controlling BRICS itself.
It may be about winning influence across the wider Global South.
Countries in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America increasingly want greater influence in international institutions and more freedom to choose their economic and political partners.
China has invested heavily in infrastructure and trade across these regions.
India is increasingly trying to build its own relationships through development partnerships, technology cooperation, diplomatic outreach and economic investment.
BRICS gives both countries an opportunity to present their visions to those countries.
BRICS Expansion Creates a New Problem
The larger BRICS becomes, the harder it becomes to maintain consensus.
The group now includes countries with sometimes conflicting interests.
The war involving Iran has already demonstrated the problem.
Iran and the UAE are both members but have ended up on opposing sides of the conflict.
Russia has acknowledged that differences between the two countries have complicated efforts to produce a joint BRICS declaration.
BRICS foreign ministers also failed to issue a joint statement earlier this year because of disagreements involving Iran and the UAE.
China and India Need Each Other
Despite their rivalry, neither China nor India benefits from destroying BRICS cooperation.
China needs India because India's participation gives the organization greater legitimacy across the developing world.
India needs China because excluding or marginalizing the world's largest BRICS economy would dramatically weaken the group's economic significance.
This creates an unusual relationship.
They compete for influence while simultaneously needing each other to make the organization work.
Russia Adds Another Dimension
Russia remains another major force inside BRICS.
Moscow has close strategic ties with both China and India, although its relationship with Beijing has become increasingly important as Western sanctions have isolated Russia from much of the Western economic system.
Russia strongly supports a more multipolar international system and sees BRICS as an important platform for reducing Western dominance.
India, however, has to balance its relationship with Russia against its growing ties with the United States.
China's relationship with Russia is strategically closer, but Beijing also has economic interests in maintaining stable relations with Europe and other markets.
The United States Is Still Part of the Equation
BRICS cannot be understood without considering the United States.
Washington is not a member of the group, but U.S. economic and military power affects almost every major strategic calculation made by BRICS countries.
India's relationship with the United States is particularly important.
New Delhi sees Washington as an important partner in balancing China's growing power in the Indo-Pacific.
At the same time, India does not want to become formally aligned against Beijing.
That explains why India continues to invest diplomatic energy in organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation while maintaining close ties with Western powers.
Who Is More Likely to Win?
If influence is measured purely by economic size, China has the advantage.
If influence is measured by diplomatic flexibility, India has a different kind of strength.
India can maintain relationships with China, Russia, the United States, Europe and countries across the Global South simultaneously.
China has enormous economic influence but faces greater strategic suspicion from some countries because of its growing military and geopolitical power.
That means the competition may not have a single winner.
China could remain the economic heavyweight inside BRICS while India becomes the bloc's key diplomatic balancer.
The Bigger Question: Can BRICS Actually Deliver?
This is where the group's future will ultimately be decided.
BRICS can issue declarations, organize summits and create new institutions.
But its credibility will depend on whether it can turn those ambitions into practical cooperation.
Proposals involving payment systems, supply chains, investment, technology and development could give the organization greater economic importance.
But internal disagreements could limit its ability to act collectively.
The 2026 summit is therefore an important test.
What to Watch at the Summit
Several developments will reveal how the China-India relationship is evolving.
First will be the Modi-Xi meeting and whether the two governments announce concrete steps to improve bilateral relations.
Second will be the debate over the Iran conflict and whether BRICS can produce a joint statement acceptable to its members.
Third will be economic cooperation, particularly efforts involving local currencies, payment systems, investment and supply chains.
Finally, the summit will show whether India can use its chairmanship to establish itself as an independent leader of the Global South rather than allowing China to dominate the organization's agenda.
Conclusion
China and India are competing for influence inside a BRICS that has become far more powerful — and far more complicated — than the organization that existed a decade ago.
China has the economic weight and global infrastructure to exert enormous influence. India has strategic flexibility and increasingly strong relationships across both the Western and non-Western worlds.
Neither country can easily dominate BRICS without alienating other members.
That may ultimately be the group's defining feature.
BRICS is not simply a Chinese bloc, nor is it an Indian project. It is a coalition of countries with overlapping ambitions but very different interests.
The real contest between Beijing and New Delhi may therefore not be about controlling BRICS — but about determining what BRICS becomes.
If China and India can manage their rivalry, BRICS could become a powerful platform for emerging economies. If their competition overwhelms cooperation, the group's growing size could become its greatest weakness.
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