Oil analysts have raised their forecasts for 2026 as prolonged disruptions to Gulf exports keep global supply under pressure, with Brent crude now expected to average close to $90 a barrel.
Key Points
- A September Reuters poll of 30 economists and analysts puts average 2026 Brent crude at $89.05 a barrel.
- The forecast range for Brent stretches from $77.27 to $97.60 a barrel.
- U.S. crude is expected to average $83.90 a barrel in 2026.
- Analysts increasingly expect disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz to persist rather than disappear quickly.
- Chinese oil inventories, which previously helped cushion the supply shock, are beginning to become a bigger market uncertainty.
- Most analysts expect oil inventories to fall during 2026 as countries use emergency and commercial reserves.
- The market could return to surplus in 2027 if shipping conditions improve and Gulf production recovers.
Oil Forecasts Move Higher
Global oil analysts are becoming more cautious about how quickly the market can return to normal after prolonged disruption in the Gulf.
A September Reuters survey of 30 economists and analysts found that Brent crude is now expected to average $89.05 a barrel in 2026, while U.S. crude is forecast to average $83.90 a barrel.
The Brent forecast represents a significant shift in expectations as analysts increasingly factor in the possibility that disruptions to Gulf exports will continue for longer than initially anticipated.
Individual forecasts remain wide, ranging from $77.27 to $97.60 a barrel for Brent, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the duration of the supply disruption and the future of global demand.
The Strait of Hormuz Remains Central
One of the biggest factors behind the higher forecasts is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy shipping route connecting the Persian Gulf with global markets.
Analysts increasingly believe that a complete restoration of normal flows through the waterway may not happen quickly. HSBC's base-case scenario assumes shipping conditions improve only gradually, leaving Hormuz "structurally impaired" for some time.
Before the conflict, roughly 19 million to 20 million barrels of liquids passed through the strait each day. The continuing disruption means global inventories are being used to compensate for reduced or delayed supply.
Oil Exports Are Recovering — But Not Normally
The situation is not simply one of completely halted exports. Some Gulf oil is still reaching international markets through alternative routes and shipping arrangements.
Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf oil exports, including so-called "dark exports" involving ships that turn off their location transponders, reached about 23.3 million barrels per day during the latest week. The bank said Gulf exports had doubled during September.
However, the ability to move oil through alternative channels does not eliminate the risks created by disrupted shipping. Insurance, transportation routes, vessel availability and security conditions can all affect how much crude ultimately reaches buyers.
China Becomes a Major Wild Card
China's oil inventories are emerging as one of the most important uncertainties for the market. The world's largest crude importer had built substantial stockpiles before the conflict, allowing it to draw on stored oil rather than compete as aggressively for new cargoes. But those reserves are finite, and Chinese imports have begun increasing again.
Chinese Imports Start Rising Again
Chinese crude imports reached nearly 9 million barrels per day in August, according to the Reuters poll report, although that remained below historical levels.
Analysts say the development matters because China's stockpiles had provided an important buffer against the global supply disruption. As those inventories decline, China may need to purchase more crude on international markets.
Increased Chinese buying could add further pressure to an already tight market, particularly if Gulf exports remain restricted through the winter.
Demand Is Still a Limiting Factor
Supply disruption is currently dominating the oil outlook, but analysts are also watching the global economy closely.
Slower economic growth and weaker manufacturing activity could reduce oil consumption, limiting how high prices can rise even if geopolitical tensions remain elevated.
Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit said weaker demand growth should prevent oil prices from returning to the extreme levels seen immediately after the conflict began.
This creates a difficult balance for the market: supply risks are pushing prices higher, while concerns about economic growth are working in the opposite direction.
Why Oil Prices Matter Beyond the Energy Market
Higher crude prices can affect economies far beyond the oil industry.
More expensive oil can raise transportation and manufacturing costs, increase fuel prices and add pressure to inflation. Governments and central banks may then face a more difficult economic environment if higher energy costs persist.
Oil-importing countries are particularly exposed because they must spend more foreign currency on energy when crude prices rise. Businesses can also face higher costs for transportation, electricity generation and raw materials.
For major oil exporters, however, higher prices can increase export revenues and government income, although the overall impact depends on production levels and the country's ability to actually get crude to international buyers.
What Could Happen in 2027?
The current forecasts do not necessarily point to permanently high oil prices.
Most analysts expect the global oil market to move back into surplus during 2027 if shipping conditions improve, Gulf production gradually returns and non-OPEC production continues expanding.
That would allow inventories to rebuild after the expected drawdowns of 2026 and could reduce some of the supply premium currently embedded in oil prices.
The timing, however, depends heavily on how quickly Gulf shipping and production recover.
The Bigger Picture
The latest Reuters poll shows how dramatically the oil outlook has changed as the Gulf disruption has lasted longer than many analysts initially expected.
Brent crude is now projected to average $89.05 a barrel in 2026, but the wide forecast range shows that the number remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments.
If shipping conditions deteriorate further, the upper end of analysts' forecasts could come under pressure. If diplomatic progress restores normal Gulf flows more quickly, supply concerns could ease and prices could move in the opposite direction.
For now, the market is watching three major variables: the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the pace at which Gulf oil production and exports recover, and how quickly Chinese and other global inventories are depleted.
Final Takeaway
The latest analyst forecasts point to a 2026 oil market shaped more by supply disruption than by strong demand.
With Brent expected to average close to $90 a barrel, consumers, businesses and oil-importing economies could continue facing elevated energy costs if Gulf disruptions persist.
But the forecast is not a prediction that oil will remain permanently expensive. The market could move back toward surplus in 2027 if shipping normalizes, Gulf production recovers and additional non-OPEC supply reaches consumers.
Until then, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important variables for the global oil market — and one of the biggest uncertainties behind the 2026 price outlook.
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